Last week Coach Wolford picked up his biggest win in his young head coaching career, a 27-24 upset over #1 North Dakota State on the road. A week later, Coach Wolford picked up his worst loss of his career, a 38-34 defeat to a 1-9 team. Give credit where credit is due, Missouri State Head Coach Terry Allen had his team buy into their game-plan for this game and they executed it pretty flawlessly, notwithstanding two turnovers by the Bears. Terry Allen had our number when he was with Northern Iowa and he has had his number with the Bears, now defeating Youngstown State four consecutive years.
 

Prior to the game, I was walking into the stadium with a man whose son played under Tressel and won three national championships under him in 1991, 1993, and 1994. He said he was a bit worried because you just never know, on any given Saturday anything can happen. Just as NDSU fans were stunned last week when we beat them in the FargoDome, YSU fans were in absolute shock after this heartbreaking defeat.
 

In this post-mortem of sorts, I will outline the 2011 season by breaking it down with the good, the bad, and the ugly.
 

The Good

Although fans are waking up still emotional after yesterday's loss, there is plenty of good to find in this team this season. Last year we were 3-8, while this year we improved by three games and finished 6-5 on the campaign. Our offense set numerous records, including average yardage per game (458.6 ypg) and average scoring offense (36.2 ppg). Kurt Hess set a record yesterday with 5 touchdown passes and Jamaine Cook finished eighth nationally with 126 yards per game.
 

On the defensive side of the football last year, we finished 102nd nationally, giving up 411.2 yards per game. This season we improved on that finishing 54th, giving up 352.27 yards per game. Our defense showed glimpses of taking a couple steps forward, but I will touch upon that in the paragraphs ahead.
 

Fortunately for us, we return just about everyone on offense and we return a solid corps of talent on defense at LB, CB, and at S. In addition, Donald D'Alesio, Jamarious Boatwright, and Deionte Williams return at CB so we will finally have a bit of depth at that spot on defense. However there is no doubt we have a long way to go.
 

The Bad

I think yesterday's loss sums it up. We were :12 seconds away from a potential playoff spot, and by no means were we a lock for the playoffs had we won, and BAM.... our season came to a close. We were so close to possibly getting back to the promised land, but we could not deliver. Our defense which had played so well the previous two weeks against #6 Northern Iowa and #1 North Dakota State was scorched for 389 yards and 38 points.
 

However, what may have been worse were our special teams and our offense's inability once again to not close a game out on that side of the football. On third and five Kurt Hess' pass to Jamaine Cook was dropped right in front of me, and we were forced to punt and I thought here we go again. Had Cook made that catch, I'd be willing to bet we run the clock out since MSU had just one timeout remaining.
 

The Ugly

Where to begin? I already touched on our offense's inability to seal the deal by running the clock out. But Coach Wolford and his staff must take a serious look at our special teams and defense when it comes to recruiting in this upcoming class. I'd bet we have 20 recruit class with the graduating seniors and the expectation a few players end up quitting the team. We need some serious talent at every position on defense and we desperately need to improve our kick/punt coverage because it is lousy, and one can certainly argue that it cost us the game yesterday.

 

The bottom line is this: The past two seasons we have had a great offense and bad/average defense (2010 and 2011 respectively). We will never win a National Championship until we have a top 15-20 defense at this level. We have experimented with the approach of winning games with 70+ points scored between the two teams and we ended up 9-13 in the process. It is time to take the next step on defense and be dominant like North Dakota State or Northern Iowa's defense. Until we do, we may be good enough to make the playoffs, but we will not be able to just score massive amounts of points and expect to win a championship. That is just my two cents, but I believe many will agree with me on that.
 

Finally to the fans: Nothing despises me more than fair-weather fans. They were out there in massive numbers in the 90s when we were winning titles, but when we hit our struggles in the past decade, they stopped coming to the games. It is always easy cheering for a winner, but when your team struggles, you get a better idea of who the true fans actually are. Nebraska, Notre Dame, Delaware, etc. always have near sell-out or sell-out crowds for their games; and you folks know as well as I do that they have had just as many rough seasons as YSU has had as of late. Don't give me this nonsense that it was cold outside or Ohio State was playing. First off 55 degrees and sunny is not cold. Secondly, Ohio State started at 3:30pm, Jim Tressel is not the coach at Ohio State anymore, and the team has a mediocre (by their golden standards) 6-5 record. There is absolutely NO reason that the fans were not out in full force yesterday. 
 

Conclusion

In conclusion, to the true Penguin fans out there who actually made it out to the game, it is time to move forward. Even had we won, there is no guarantee we would have made it. To be quite honest with you, I don't even think we would have got in after seeing Illinois State get the shaft by the committee this morning, who chose a 7-4 OVC team over a 7-4 MVFC team. May I remind you the OVC has lost eighteen straight playoff games, so this one was a slap in the face to our conference.
 

The future for the program is bright and I truly believe we will be a playoff team next year and depending on how much we improve defensively, we may be able to make a run at it all. However as fans, I urge you to question those that you know who didn't feel like coming out to the game. Those individuals are the same ones calling for Coach Wolford's head after this loss. What kind of fans are you people!? For us to turn the corner as a program, we need more true fans and less fair-weather fans. Until that happens, we can expect to see a half-filled Stambaugh Stadium in October and November.
 

And to all of you that complain there is nothing to do in Youngstown, where are you when Youngstown State plays football on Saturday's or when YSU basketball plays Division 1 college basketball in a top ten conference in the country? Don't complain if you make no effort to support this University, which is educating our young people so they can make a difference in this community and make it a better place to live for all of us.

End... Of... Rant... Go Penguins!
 

Saturday's 27-24 road win over the #1 team in America, the North Dakota State Bison, propelled Youngstown State back into the playoff picture. The win over the previously undefeated (9-0) Bison should provide a huge boost to our playoff resume moving forward. Although the Penguins have wins over the Massey Ratings Index #1 North Dakota State and #13 Illinois State, we are certainly not a sure bet to make the playoffs just yet.
 

Last week, the Penguins did not receive a SINGLE vote in the SportsNetwork.com poll. I can understand us not being in the Top 25 with a 5-4 record, but for a total of 59 teams to receive votes, and not one vote cast for the Penguins, is ridiculous. Thankfully the computers, which play into the Gridiron Power Index (GPI), the FCS's version of the FCS, have taken notice of our success.
 

As of this evening, the USAToday Sagarin Ratings had Youngstown State ranked 7th in the FCS (96th overall in Divison 1 [100 spots ahead of #196 Akron]), while five other computer index's had us ranked in the top ten. The Massey Index which averages all the computer polls out has Youngstown State sitting at #15 right now, with our good friends Indiana State sitting at #13, and Illinois State sitting at #14.
 

What Is Working In Our Favor

In year's past, the Colonial Athletic Association has dominated FCS football, but this is not there year. In addition to ranking each team, the GPI ranks each conference. As of last week, The SoCon was #1, Missouri Valley was #2, while the Colonial was #3. That should bode well for the league's argument that we should get at least four, if not all five teams in if Indiana State, Illinois State, and Youngstown State all end up at 7-4 as I expect.
 

The other thing working in our favor, but also working in the favor of Illinois State as well, is the fact that if we win Saturday, we would have closed the season winning five of our last six games. Similarly, Illinois State, if they lose to UNI Saturday, would close the season winning five of six games as well. If Indiana State were to knock off Southern Illinois on Saturday, they would have closed the season winning just three of their last six games.
 

Playoff Resumes

Since there are "experts" out there that have the time and resources to go through each conference and do this, I will leave it up to them to inform us of the resumes for the other programs vying for the at-large births. Here is the breakdown for Missouri Valley Football Conference teams:
 

Illinois State:

Quality win(s): Beat #13 Indiana State at home 17-14.

Quality loss(es): Lost to #1 North Dakota State on road 20-10. Lost to #15 Youngstown State on road 35-28.

Bad loss(es): Lost to Eastern Illinois (2-9) 33-26.

Outlook: Their lone quality win is over #13 Indiana State. They have a bad loss, and I mean a bad loss, to Eastern Illinois 33-26. Just to put that into perspective, Southern Illinois just beat EIU 45-28. The other issue for Illinois State is the fact that all four of their losses are to FCS level opponents. They did not play an FBS opponent this season. To their credit, they will have won five of six to close the season, assuming Northern Iowa beats them next weekend.
 

Indiana State:

Quality win(s): Beat FBS Western Kentucky on road 44-16. Beat #15 Youngstown State at home 37-35.

Quality loss(es): Lost to #14 Illinois State 17-14.

Bad loss(es): None.

Outlook: The win over FBS Western Kentucky was pretty solid early, but since then WKU has won five of six and are a win away from becoming bowl eligible at the FBS level. They also beat our beloved Penguins 37-35. The issue for Indiana State is they lost by eleven to #1 North Dakota State and by 14 to #3 Northern Iowa. The other issue is they will have ended the season winning just three of their last six games. To their credit, they don't have a bad loss. And for comparison's sake against Youngstown State in their game against a Big Ten opponent, they lost to FBS #21 Penn State 41-7.
 

Youngstown State:

Quality win(s): Beat #14 Illinois State at home 35-28. Beat #1 North Dakota State on road 27-24. 

Quality loss(es): Lost to #13 Indiana State 37-35. Lost to #3 Northern Iowa 21-17. 

Bad loss(es): Lost to South Dakota State (5-6) 35-28. 

Outlook: The Penguins have something that the two teams above do not have, a win on the road in Fargo, ND against the #1 team in the country. Furthermore, YSU has a solid win over #14 Illinois State 35-28. In terms of losses, they stormed back from a 21-0 deficit on the road against Indiana State, only to lose 37-35. Last weekend, YSU blew a 17-14 lead with 1:59 left to Northern Iowa, losing that contest 21-17. The thing hurting Youngstown State is the loss to South Dakota State at home, although SDSU has finished the season on a high note. Like Illinois State, the Penguins will have ended their season winning five of six if the Penguins can knock off Missouri State next weekend. And again for comparison's sake against Indiana State, Youngstown State lost to FBS #15 Michigan State 28-6.
 

Next weekend the playoff committee has one hell of a task ahead of them determining which of these three teams deserves to make it the playoffs the most, or hell, if all three should make it in. I would absolutely love to see five MVFC teams make it in, but I do not see it happening. I anticipate a total of four MVFC teams making it in, they being #1 NDSU, #3 UNI, #14 Illinois State, and #15 Youngstown State.
 

I feel Youngstown State's win over #1 NDSU makes their resume a bit stronger than that of ILSU and INSU. At that point, I give Illinois State the slight nod over Indiana State due to the way they closed out the season winning five of six. I for one thought they were toast after losing to us, but they perserved and are in a great spot to make the playoffs. And to our friends in Terre Haute, remember I predicted you guys to finish #3 in the conference this year with an outside shot at the playoffs. For the first five weeks of the season you had that spot locked, but your play in the final six weeks may have cost you guys that spot.

*Note: All rankings I used in this article were from the Massey Ratings Index.
 

Prior to the start of the season, I predicted North Dakota State would win the Missouri Valley Football Conference and went on to say they had an outside shot at a National Title this year. The 9-0 Bison are two wins away from going into the playoffs with an undefeated record and the #1 overall seed. Although I predicted the Bison to have a great season this year, I figured they would stumble at least once, if not twice on the year. To their credit, they have not suffered a setback on the 2011 campaign and have outscored their opponents by double digits in seven of their nine wins.
 

Unlike our struggles against Northern Iowa, Youngstown State has done quite well against the Bison since they joined the conference in the 2008 season. In 2008, Youngstown State knocked off the then #4 Bison at home 32-24. A year later in the FargoDome, YSU stormed back from a 35-24 fourth quarter deficit to defeat the Bison 39-35 with :22 seconds remaining in what would eventually be Jon Heacock's final game as YSU Head Coach. Last season at Stambaugh Stadium the Bison took a page from Youngstown State's playbook. After Stephen Blose connected on a 38 yard field goal with :51 seconds remaining, North Dakota State had a huge return out to their own 45 yard line. Two plays later Jose Mohler connected with Justin Howard on a 45 yard touchdown pass to give the Bison a 34-29 edge, just :17 seconds after the Penguins took the lead.
 

This season the Bison have improved, but so have the Penguins. YSU, which finished 3-8 last season, has already improved their win total by two games this season and should finish no worse than 6-5 on the campaign, a three game improvement from last season. YSU's three conference losses this year were by two to ranked Indiana State, seven to South Dakota State, and four to #6 Northern Iowa. 
 

Statistically speaking, this game next week is quite similar from the game yesterday in the UNI Dome. North Dakota State has a tremendous defense, while Youngstown State has a tremendous offense. By all accounts, this has the makings to be one of North Dakota State's toughest games on the year, even though they are playing at home.
 

Anyone who thinks the Penguins don't stand a chance in this contest need to think again. Youngstown State's worst conference loss under Coach Wolford was by ten points, 30-20, at South Dakota State last season. Since then, the defense has improved drastically and the offense continues to put up big numbers. I antipicate another war next Saturday in the FargoDome and expect the Penguins to leave it all out on the field.
 

In a tweet last night, Kurt Hess wrote the following, "I [gotta] 60 minute meeting with the number one team in the country next Saturday. #bisonhunt" Jamaine Cook may have summed it up best though stating, "Through the midst of it all our goals are still in front of us and we need to just stay humble and HUNGRY."
 

Jamaine Cook is right, the Penguins goal of reaching the playoffs this year is still out in front of them and a win on Saturday against the #1 team in the nation will go a long way in getting this program back in the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Not only does that win improve our playoff resume, but it strengthens our resume against Illinois State and Indiana State, two teams that I predict will also finish 7-4 on the year.
 

If the Penguins can get the upset Saturday:

Youngstown State: Wins over #1 North Dakota State, #17 Illinois State

Illinois State: A win over ranked Indiana State (They could still beat Northern Iowa, guaranteeing them a playoff spot, but I don't predict it to happen)

Indiana State: A win over FBS Western Kentucky.
 

Although amusing, Scalzo was perhaps a bit too caught up in the same torn emotions that many Penguin fans felt following that loss. Despite that setback, the Penguins have won two games in a row and are favored to beat Western Illinois 37-26 this Saturday according to the Massey Index. Western is coming off an embarrassing 31-17 loss to the league’s worst team, the 1-7 Missouri State Bears, this past weekend.

If the Penguins take care of the business at hand this week and do not get upset like they did against South Dakota State, YSU will be a 5-3 team heading into the UNI Dome the first Saturday of November to take on the #2 Northern Iowa Panthers. A week later the Penguins will fly up north to Fargo to take on the #3 North Dakota State Bison. It is worth noting UNI and NDSU play each other in a huge game this weekend. The winner of that contest may very well be the #1 team in the country by the time the Penguins get their hands on them. YSU concludes their season against the league’s worst team, Missouri State, who has beat the Penguins three consecutive years.

I took a look at this week’s Missouri Valley Football Conference Statistics and came away quite impressed with Youngstown State’s standing on the offensive side of the football. YSU is #1 in scoring offense (37.7 ppg), total offense (481.3 ypg), rushing offense (259.9 ypg), first downs (25.6 pg), 3rd-down conversions (43.7%), and time of possession (32:35 pg). In addition YSU is #2 in passing offense (221.4 ypg) and #3 in passing efficiency (150.2).

There is no doubt in my mind that the Penguins have the offensive firepower to compete in these critical last four games, and win at least three of the four contests. What I am not too sure of just yet is whether our defense has turned the corner as it looked like it may have in the road win at Southern Illinois.

Regardless, these last four games represent a crucial stretch for this program. Win two of the last four and the Penguins will finish the season 6-5, a three game improvement for second year coach Eric Wolford. Win three of the last four and the Penguins will sit at 7-4 and possibly sneak in as an at-large team in the FCS playoffs. And in the unlikely scenario that the Penguins win out, they will most certainly be a playoff team in 2011.

It is important for the Penguins to finish this season on a high note to give us the momentum into the offseason to recruit the elite talent we need to win our fifth national championship here. I predicted us to finish 6-5 at the beginning of the season, with an outside shot at 7-4, and believe we will finish with one of those two records. However I am of the belief this team will mature this offseason and most certainly be a playoff team next year. It is up to our young leaders to finish this season strong and do everything in their power to find a way to get us into the playoffs this season and/or next season.

In conclusion, the old adage is that one game does not make or break a season. Someone needs to remind that to the coroner who doubted us a few weeks ago.

Go Penguins! Beat Western!