( 2 Votes )
Illinois State:
Indiana State:
Youngstown State:
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13 November 2011
Saturday's 27-24 road win over the #1 team in America, the North Dakota State Bison, propelled Youngstown State back into the playoff picture. The win over the previously undefeated (9-0) Bison should provide a huge boost to our playoff resume moving forward. Although the Penguins have wins over the Massey Ratings Index #1 North Dakota State and #13 Illinois State, we are certainly not a sure bet to make the playoffs just yet.
Last week, the Penguins did not receive a SINGLE vote in the SportsNetwork.com poll. I can understand us not being in the Top 25 with a 5-4 record, but for a total of 59 teams to receive votes, and not one vote cast for the Penguins, is ridiculous. Thankfully the computers, which play into the Gridiron Power Index (GPI), the FCS's version of the FCS, have taken notice of our success.
As of this evening, the USAToday Sagarin Ratings had Youngstown State ranked 7th in the FCS (96th overall in Divison 1 [100 spots ahead of #196 Akron]), while five other computer index's had us ranked in the top ten. The Massey Index which averages all the computer polls out has Youngstown State sitting at #15 right now, with our good friends Indiana State sitting at #13, and Illinois State sitting at #14.
What Is Working In Our Favor
In year's past, the Colonial Athletic Association has dominated FCS football, but this is not there year. In addition to ranking each team, the GPI ranks each conference. As of last week, The SoCon was #1, Missouri Valley was #2, while the Colonial was #3. That should bode well for the league's argument that we should get at least four, if not all five teams in if Indiana State, Illinois State, and Youngstown State all end up at 7-4 as I expect.
The other thing working in our favor, but also working in the favor of Illinois State as well, is the fact that if we win Saturday, we would have closed the season winning five of our last six games. Similarly, Illinois State, if they lose to UNI Saturday, would close the season winning five of six games as well. If Indiana State were to knock off Southern Illinois on Saturday, they would have closed the season winning just three of their last six games.
Playoff Resumes
Since there are "experts" out there that have the time and resources to go through each conference and do this, I will leave it up to them to inform us of the resumes for the other programs vying for the at-large births. Here is the breakdown for Missouri Valley Football Conference teams:
Illinois State:
Quality win(s): Beat #13 Indiana State at home 17-14.
Quality loss(es): Lost to #1 North Dakota State on road 20-10. Lost to #15 Youngstown State on road 35-28.
Bad loss(es): Lost to Eastern Illinois (2-9) 33-26.
Outlook: Their lone quality win is over #13 Indiana State. They have a bad loss, and I mean a bad loss, to Eastern Illinois 33-26. Just to put that into perspective, Southern Illinois just beat EIU 45-28. The other issue for Illinois State is the fact that all four of their losses are to FCS level opponents. They did not play an FBS opponent this season. To their credit, they will have won five of six to close the season, assuming Northern Iowa beats them next weekend.
Indiana State:
Quality win(s): Beat FBS Western Kentucky on road 44-16. Beat #15 Youngstown State at home 37-35.
Quality loss(es): Lost to #14 Illinois State 17-14.
Bad loss(es): None.
Outlook: The win over FBS Western Kentucky was pretty solid early, but since then WKU has won five of six and are a win away from becoming bowl eligible at the FBS level. They also beat our beloved Penguins 37-35. The issue for Indiana State is they lost by eleven to #1 North Dakota State and by 14 to #3 Northern Iowa. The other issue is they will have ended the season winning just three of their last six games. To their credit, they don't have a bad loss. And for comparison's sake against Youngstown State in their game against a Big Ten opponent, they lost to FBS #21 Penn State 41-7.
Youngstown State:
Quality win(s): Beat #14 Illinois State at home 35-28. Beat #1 North Dakota State on road 27-24.
Quality loss(es): Lost to #13 Indiana State 37-35. Lost to #3 Northern Iowa 21-17.
Bad loss(es): Lost to South Dakota State (5-6) 35-28.
Outlook: The Penguins have something that the two teams above do not have, a win on the road in Fargo, ND against the #1 team in the country. Furthermore, YSU has a solid win over #14 Illinois State 35-28. In terms of losses, they stormed back from a 21-0 deficit on the road against Indiana State, only to lose 37-35. Last weekend, YSU blew a 17-14 lead with 1:59 left to Northern Iowa, losing that contest 21-17. The thing hurting Youngstown State is the loss to South Dakota State at home, although SDSU has finished the season on a high note. Like Illinois State, the Penguins will have ended their season winning five of six if the Penguins can knock off Missouri State next weekend. And again for comparison's sake against Indiana State, Youngstown State lost to FBS #15 Michigan State 28-6.
Next weekend the playoff committee has one hell of a task ahead of them determining which of these three teams deserves to make it the playoffs the most, or hell, if all three should make it in. I would absolutely love to see five MVFC teams make it in, but I do not see it happening. I anticipate a total of four MVFC teams making it in, they being #1 NDSU, #3 UNI, #14 Illinois State, and #15 Youngstown State.
I feel Youngstown State's win over #1 NDSU makes their resume a bit stronger than that of ILSU and INSU. At that point, I give Illinois State the slight nod over Indiana State due to the way they closed out the season winning five of six. I for one thought they were toast after losing to us, but they perserved and are in a great spot to make the playoffs. And to our friends in Terre Haute, remember I predicted you guys to finish #3 in the conference this year with an outside shot at the playoffs. For the first five weeks of the season you had that spot locked, but your play in the final six weeks may have cost you guys that spot.
*Note: All rankings I used in this article were from the Massey Ratings Index.
*Note: All rankings I used in this article were from the Massey Ratings Index.